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A Dead Cert? And a sleepless night |
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11 October 2010 |
Justin Urquhart Stewart is one of the most recognisable and trusted market commentators on television, radio and in the press. Originally trained as a lawyer, he has observed the retail market industry for 20 years whilst at Barclays Stockbrokers and developed a unique understanding of the market's roles and benefits for the private investor.
Justin Urquhart Stewart is one of the most recognisable and trusted market commentators on television, radio and in the press. Originally trained as a lawyer, he has observed the retail market industry for 20 years whilst at Barclays Stockbrokers and developed a unique understanding of the market's roles and benefits for the private investor.
I have lived in them, worked in them and have relations in several of them. I am a fan, but beware of fans as they have a habit of following fashions. The emerging and developing nations have quite understandably been the darling of investors for some time. Obviously this is quite understandable given the stunning growth stories that we have seen in many of these nations. Compared to our old stodgy developed economies these are exciting areas with higher growth rates than we are used to, as well as younger populations often with a more positive and dynamic attitude. Additionally such countries are often under-represented in the global market.
Figures from Goldman Sachs indicate that total capitalisation of the emerging markets could rise from the current level of $14trn to some $80trn by 2030. This would be an increase in the global total value from 31% to 55%. Allowing for a level of new issuance, this translates into an annualised return of 9.3% compared to a seemingly sluggish 4% from the developed markets. So that seems to be an obvious decision then |
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