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08 March 2010 |
Justin Urquhart Stewart is one of the most recognisable and trusted market commentators in the media. Originally trained as a lawyer, he has observed the retail market industry for 20 years whilst at Barclays Stockbrokers and developed a unique understanding of the market's roles and benefits for the private investor.
Justin Urquhart Stewart is one of the most recognisable and trusted market commentators in the media. Originally trained as a lawyer, he has observed the retail market industry for 20 years whilst at Barclays Stockbrokers and developed a unique understanding of the market's roles and benefits for the private investor. Justin provides financial advice to clients of Kester Cunningham John Financial Planning LLP.
If anyone can say they have had a good recession it has to be India. In fact they didn't seem to have had a recession at all. In 2008/9 her gross domestic product grew by 6.7%, with an increase forecasted for this year to 7.2%. However, of course with this there have been constraints, with both the government fiscal deficit rising and the rate of inflation creeping up. Although these have been a concern they seem not to be at worrying levels for the moment.
India, to state the stunningly obvious, is no China. Yes certainly in terms of square kilometres, population and many other dimensional statistics both are huge, but thereafter they are best identified by their differences rather than similarities. In our somewhat patronising Western view we tend to lump groups of nations together and most fashionably and recently have done so with two others - Brazil and Russia - to form the investment acronym and fad of the BRIC countries.
Brazil and Russia are primarily commodity based economies, although the former does have a burgeoning middle class. The latter, although having a developing middle class, has a population which is in fact shrinking quite drastically. Not only does it seem that the Russians have given up breeding but, unlike us, they seem to attract few immigrants apart from those brought in by the security services. Both nations react to global demand for raw materials and certainly when China breathes in, Brazil breathes out (exports) iron ore.
Both China and India have growing and developing populations and with them will inevitably come the increased demand for consumer goods and other popular disposables. Such demand will develop according to the growing wealth of those nations, but will also be helped by the development of their consumer credit and banking facilities.
A key difference between the two is of course their political systems |
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